Lawrence, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

135
FXUS63 KTOP 270801
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
301 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The excessive period of heat begins today with heat indices up
  to 110 degrees this afternoon through Tuesday. Heat Advisory
  was extended into early Tuesday evening.

- Precip chances return late Tuesday night, becoming more
  prominent Wednesday and Thursday as a slow moving cold front
  brings several rounds of showers and thunderstorms.

- Cooler relief in temps arrive Thursday with highs in the 70s
  and overnight lows in the low 60s through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

Mid level heights are building northward into the central plains
this morning per water vapor imagery. A few mid level clouds this
morning should dissipate by the afternoon, clearing the way for an
even warmer afternoon compared to Saturday. Tightening pressure
gradient amid the southerly low level flow and deeper mixing to the
sfc result in south winds from 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph,
particularly west of highway 75. No major changes made to the
forecast in terms of heat indices, ranging from 105 to 110 degrees.

Boundary layer does not decouple as quickly this evening as a 35 kt
llj sustains just off the sfc, keeping temps on the warm side in the
middle 70s. This should make it fairly easy for temps to once again
rise into the upper 90s and low 100s Monday afternoon. Dewpoints
towards north central Kansas are slightly lower into the 60s while
mid 70s hold in eastern areas. Both sides shake out to similar max
heat indices in the 104 to 110 range.

Uncertainty in heat indices begins to increase on Tuesday as the
northern stream jet max drops southward, surging a cold front into
central NE by the afternoon. While probabilities for precip are low
near the highway 36 corridor, increasing high clouds could temper
heat indices below heat advisory criteria (albeit around 100 degrees
still).  Elsewhere, cloud cover should not have an impact on
temperatures with similar expectations from previous days of heat
indices once again climbing at or above 105 degrees. Decided to
therefore extend the heat advisory into early Tuesday evening for
most of the outlook area.

Thunderstorm probabilities increase late Tuesday night for northern
portions of the CWA as weakening MCS cluster drops south from NE,
exhibited by multiple ensemble members from the GFS/EC. Any remnant
outflow boundaries and/or the cold front could be the focus for
additional scattered storm development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Timing of an embedded shortwave trough will also play a
role in coverage of convection. Assistance from the LLJ and
additional embedded upper trough rounding the edge of the ridge may
bring another round of storms to the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. The cold front shunts southward in the Thur-Fri timeframe
towards central or southern KS, overall lessening the precip chances
in northeast Kansas as drier and much appreciated cooler air filters
in. Highs fall to the 70s from Thursday-Saturday while overnight
lows are in the low 60s, perhaps upper 50s near the Nebraska border.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR at terminals as calm winds pickup to near 10 kts sustained
aft 14Z. Gusts to near 20 kts are most likely at KMHK in the
afternoon.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Monday for
KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-
KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto